Houston, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

419
FXUS64 KHGX 200604
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1204 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A long stretch of unseasonably warm weather begins Saturday
  with temperatures 10-20 degrees above normal.

- A weak, backdoor front will help keep Sunday from being quite as
  warm as other days, and also bring an outside shot at some
  showers and a stray thunderstorm.

- Daily chances for sea fog will become the main weather concern,
  especially across the bays and coastal areas. The main threat
  for fog will be during the nighttime and early morning hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1204 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

Yup, it`s that time of year when the biggest forecast concern and
puzzle will be the potential for rounds of fog each night and
morning, especially with sea fog at the coast. However, while
we`ll have to evaluate that potential for several days, it`s not
necessarily a slam dunk potential, particularly deeper into next
week. The same onshore winds that will pump in moisture to help
fuel fog, it will also help filter in some warmer water from
farther offshore to act as a bit of a drag on fog potential. On
top of that, the well-advertised stretch of unseasonable warmth
will also help to warm coastal waters - and should they warm
enough to outpace the influx of low level moisture, that will also
limit fog threat. So...ultimately...while we can certainly
highlight potential for fog each night/morning for the next
several days, in some ways we`ll also have to take each day as it
comes to handle specific intensity and impact. The TL;DR on this?
#stupidfog

The other main feature of this forecast, already alluded to above,
is the stretch of unseasonably warm conditions and ridging aloft
that will carry us through Christmas. If we were to try to stick
to only very high confidence, and run with the NBM 10th percentile
(which, to be very clear, we are *not* doing), it`d still be quite
warm. Even with this very low bar, highs across the area would be
in the 70s every day with the sole exception of the northern tier
of our area on Sunday, which has 10th percentile highs "only" in
the upper 60s.

What`s more likely? Daily highs in the at least the 70s across
the area every day, with warm spots along the coastal plain
reaching to around or even just over 80 degrees. The "cold" end of
the guidance here is still about 10 degrees above normal, and the
most likely outcome is in the 10-20 degrees above normal band.
While it`s not so hot that I`m explicitly forecasting highs, we`ll
surely be in the neighborhood, and some records could find
themselves under threat.

If that`s still not enough for you, may I interest you in the
90th percentile NBM highs? In a high- end scenario, we`d be
looking more at highs in the lower 80s spreading across most of
our area, and record highs would be a more emergent threat. Now,
this may not be the most likely outcome, but is certainly a
reasonable exploration of how hot it could get.

Real quickly before we wind things up, let`s chat about Sunday a
little. What had once looked like one of the hotter days of the
forecast period, it now stands out as a day that could
be...well...not cooler really, but less hot. It is looking more
like a weak, backdoor front will make its way into the area. It
won`t accomplish a whole lot, but could briefly turn winds light
and variable/northerly for northern half of the area or so, and
bring in some chances for some isolated to widely scattered
showers, maybe even a stray thunderstorm in the afternoon and
evening. Some slight chance PoPs even linger into Monday! In the
grand scheme of things, it`s not really a whole lot. But...in this
particular week, it`s about the only thing to talk about other
than heat and fog.


&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 507 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

VFR conditions and light southerly to southeasterly winds will
prevail going into the evening hours with a trend for winds to
become light and variable overnight. Model guidance is fairly
consistent on a window for MVFR to potentially IFR ceilings on
Saturday morning generally in the 12Z-16Z timeframe. This is more
likely for northern and western terminals, but there is enough
probability for it to extend to the Houston metro terminals that a
TEMPO has been added. There is also potential for reduced
visibility due to patchy fog in that same timeframe as well, but
this has only been hinted at for CXO and SGR for now. Wind speeds
pick up out of south-southwest by Saturday afternoon with 10-15 kt
sustained winds and gusts in the 20-25 kt range through sunset.

Looking ahead to Saturday night/Sunday morning, confidence is
increasing on widespread IFR/MVFR ceilings and visibilities with
areas of dense fog anticipated especially near and south of I-10.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1204 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

The traditional portions of the marine forecast will have
relatively little impact over the next several days. Seas look to
be 2 to 3 feet closer to shore, and up to 3 to 4 feet farther from
shore. Winds have already become onshore again following
yesterday`s front, and will remain so for the next several days.
They should stay relatively light, though their persistence and
fetch from the open Gulf will help to generate those waves closer
to 4 feet farther offshore.

Rather than winds and seas, the main concern for the next several
days will be the potential for overnight and morning fog. This
potential will need to be monitored each night into next week, as
more humid air streams back into the region on those persistent
southeasterly to southerly winds. This will have a somewhat mixed
impact on the fog potential, though. The onshore flow will
continuously provide a source of moisture to help fuel fog. But,
it will also bring in the influence of warmer waters farther
offshore that, when combined with the unseasonable warmth also
helping to warm coastal waters, will act as a brake on fog
potential.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  47  76  61  73 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  49  79  66  78 /   0   0   0  10
Galveston (GLS)  55  71  65  72 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Luchs
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...Luchs